BSF World Simulator — ENTOMO INTELLIGENCE

Global Organic Waste — Dynamics

940 → ~1,880 M t by 2035

% of Global South reaching
world-average consumption (~400 kg/yr)

3 billion people currently consume ~260 kg/yr. World average ~400 kg. Each % of transition adds waste.

Base 2025

940

M t / year

+ Urbanization

M t (+2.5%/yr)

+ New middle class

M t

Global organic waste in 2025

940 M t

The BSF industry runs on this stream. At 5% coverage it already matches the fish meal market. Cities of 2-3M residents produce >20,000 t of organics/mo — the hub break-even threshold without subsidies.

City and Chain Parameters

City

Population

2.0 M

Household Participation

40%

City Type

medium

Medium: plastic 3.0 kg/person/mo · cardboard 4.0 kg/person/mo

Logistics and Substrate

Organic Logistics ($/t)

$8/t

Substrate Logistics ($/t)

$10/t

Substrate Price hub→farm ($/t)

$40/t

Revenue and Recyclables

Recyclables rate growth / yr

4.0%

Frass price for households ($/t)

$80/t

Market frass price ~$200/t. Subsidized — from $40/t. The difference affects farm expenses.

Household

$28/mo

income from organics,
plastic, cardboard, frass

Rendering Hub

$1.9M

EBITDA / hub / year

BSF Small Farm

—

EBITDA / farm (10 t/day)

BSF Large Farm

—

EBITDA / farm (50 t/day)

Rendering Hub

P&L / year

Organics/day

—

Hubs

—

× 5,000 households

Substrate/year

—

Partic. households

—

+ Substrate → farm ($40/t)

—

+ Plastic ($320/t · 3.0 kg/person/mo)

—

+ Cardboard ($100/t · 4.0 kg/person/mo)

—

− Households for organics ($20/t)

—

− Organic logistics ($8/t)

—

− Hub OPEX (25% of substrate revenue)

—

EBITDA total

—

EBITDA / hub / year

—

EBITDA margin

—

Households

income / year

Organics ($20/t, fixed)

—

Plastic ($320/t)

—

Cardboard ($100/t)

—

Frass from BSF farm ($80/t)

—

Total to households

—

Per 1 partic. household / mo

—

Three independent income streams work in parallel. Organics — fixed base. Plastic and cardboard grow with rates. Frass — variable part from the BSF farm.

BSF Farm — Park 4:1 + P&L

FCR model

10 t/day

Small farm · 3,650 t sub./yr

—

— meal/farm

50 t/day

Large farm · 18,250 t sub./yr

—

— meal/farm

Farms total

—

Substrate/yr

—

Larvae/yr

—

x18% sub.

Meal/yr

—

x20% larvae

Frass/yr

—

x40% sub.

Substrate per 1 t of meal (1÷(0.18×0.20))

27.78 t

Substrate cost / t meal ($40/t × 27.78)

—

Substrate logistics / t meal ($10/t × 27.78)

—

FCR base total / t meal

—

× 1.40 (OPEX 20% + margin 20%) → meal price

—

+ Meal sales (FCR price)

—

+ Frass → households ($80/t · always revenue)

—

− Substrate from hub ($40/t)

—

− Substrate logistics ($10/t)

—

− Farm OPEX (20% of meal revenue)

—

EBITDA total

—

EBITDA / small farm

—

EBITDA / large farm

—

Fish Meal vs BSF — Market and Prices

crossover ~2029

Fish meal

$1.50/kg

BSF meal (FCR)

—

Fish meal market (~7 M t × price)

—

BSF market at 5% of global waste

—

BSF market at 20% of global waste

—

Fish meal rises ~12%/yr until 2030 (quota deficit + expensive fuel). BSF price drops ~1%/yr due to scale. Aquaculture switches for financial logic, not ecological — precisely at the crossover point.

Global waste in current year

940 M t

BSF meal at 5% coverage

—